EDERSON TRANSFER PLANS WOULD GIVE LIVERPOOL EARLY EDGE IN TITLE RACE AFTER ALISSON DECISION

Ederson is "in talks" with Saudi Pro League clubs over a summer transfer. And Liverpool could get a big boost in the Premier League title race if he leaves — albeit not for the reasons you might expect.

Talks have been ongoing since May, per Fabrizio Romano, and Manchester City is willing to let Ederson leave. Al-Nassr, the club where Cristiano Ronaldo plays his football, is said to have recently tabled a "huge offer" (Goal).

Clearly, the goalkeeping department is not where Liverpool has lagged slightly behind Man City in recent years. Alisson is arguably the best in the world, with Jurgen Klopp ceding ground to Pep Guardiola in other areas.

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In fact, in terms of shot-stopping, Ederson consistently ranks as extremely average. "Post-shot expected goals" measures how likely a chance is to go in once an effort has already been struck, which provides a handy metric for assessing goalkeepers, and the Man City keeper rarely places especially well.

2023/24 was one of Ederson's better campaigns for Manchester City, as he prevented an additional 0.04 goals per 90 compared to the "expected" total, per FBRef. His best season was 2019/20 (+0.08) and his worst was 2022/23 (-0.14).

In an extreme rarity, he actually beat Alisson last season on this front, albeit not Caoimhin Kelleher (+0.13, better than Ederson's all-time best). But the Liverpool number one is usually streets ahead, recording a personal best of +0.27 in 2022/23.

However, the life of a Manchester City goalkeeper is a strange one. Guardiola's side is so possession-oriented that opposing attacks are few and far between, and the keeper's role is just as much about ball-playing as it is shot-stopping.

Had Claudio Bravo arrived at the modern iteration of Manchester City, he may well have thrived, as he did at Barcelona. Since Ederson has been there, and Guardiola has honed his team's outfield game, shot-stopping has been tested less and less often, masking weaknesses in the Brazilian's game.

In many ways, then, a change between the sticks for Manchester City would be almost irrelevant. But at least in the short-term, it certainly has the potential to unsettle Guardiola's back line.

It has grown very accustomed to playing with Ederson. The defenders trust him with the ball in situations where 99 per cent of goalkeepers might panic. Naturally, Man City will again be on the hunt for a ball-playing stopper, but a change would be bound to disrupt the tried-and-trusted patterns of play out from the back.

Klopp might be gone, but Liverpool is still going to be a high-pressing team, and would look to punish any such uncertainty. Its first chance to do so will not be until the end of November, but it has reason to be hopeful that other Premier League sides will take advantage before then if Ederson really does leave.

2024-07-04T11:40:10Z dg43tfdfdgfd